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News
August 2009 Bulletin
Are we over the worst?
As the UK entered into the current recession there was criticism of the media for “talking the situation down” so the recently reported good news stories should be viewed with an equally critical eye. It is good news that house prices appear to have hit the bottom and are gently drifting upwards and even more good news that UK manufacturing output has risen. However, the UK economy appears, at best, to have leveled off at a new, lower level.
Q2 2009 GDP was down 0.8% against a forecast drop of only 0.3% - that’s 4 consecutive quarterly falls leaving the UK economy 5% smaller than it was 12 months earlier.
There is talk, too, of the banks leading us out of the recession and much political pressure being brought to bear on banks to increase lending. However, bank lending to business fell again in June and May’s net lending figure was the lowest since June 2000. There is a further wave of losses that banks face in the commercial property sector. According to Savills, there are £300bn of commercial mortgages in the UK, half of which are due to be refinanced in the next two to three years – yet there is only capacity for £20bn a year leaving a shortfall in funding of £90bn. Commercial property values have fallen 40% in the last 2 years and rents have dropped in the last 3 months at the fastest rate on record. If banks are forced to take write downs on their loan books then all new lending will be restricted or will be charged at higher margins – a situation that is already being widely reported.
In the search for positive news many business people are voicing the opinion that the recession has already seen off the weak companies and that those that are left will survive. However, UK corporate insolvencies in 2009 are predicted to reach 39,000 by Euler Hermes and 40,000 by the Credit Management Research Centre and the latest insolvency figures show these predictions to be fairly accurate after two quarters.
There may be some early signs of recovery in the economy, but the threat of debtor insolvency still remains high. Good credit management (including trade credit insurance) remain areas of key importance for business success.
Latest News
May 2010 Bulletin
A bright start to 2010?
The insolvency statistics released on Friday 7th May show a decrease in compulsory liquidations and creditors’ voluntary liquidations by 8.4% on the previous quarter and by 17.8% on the same quarter a year ago. So can we say that these figures, coupled with the recent GDP figures showing growth in the UK economy of 0.2% for Q1 2010 show that the recession is now ov....
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